Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
